Track record

Every call, graded by Kalshi's official result. Shown after each market closes.

Commodities · winning streaks

WTI

WTI Oil

2 in a row2W-0L

Closed	Market	Call	Conf.	Result	Reason
Oct 7, 11:00 PM	Palladium	▼ DOWN	64%	LOST	Model favors down 68.9%; price is 0.140% below target and only 40.6% of historical blocks rose. The 0.134% five-minute rebound, higher 4h volatility and prior DOWN loss temper confidence.
Oct 7, 10:45 PM	WTI Oil	▲ UP	74%	WON	Model gives 79.7% up; the 0.191% cushion nearly matches the 0.196% expected move. A 57.6% historical reversal rate supports recovery after a down block, though the -0.247% hour limits confidence.
Oct 7, 10:45 PM	NEAR	▲ UP	76%	WON	Model gives 81.8% up, supported by +0.235% over 5m and +1.932% over 4h. The 0.191% cushion is small versus a 0.914% expected move; RSI 74.1 and whipsawing recent blocks limit confidence.
Oct 7, 10:45 PM	Copper	▼ DOWN	94%	WON	Model DOWN 99.2%; price is 0.283% below target versus a 0.077% expected move. Positive 5m/60m momentum is insufficient evidence for crossing; historical continuation is only 42.6%.
Oct 7, 10:45 PM	Ethereum	▲ UP	65%	WON	Model UP 72.7%; target is just 0.005% higher. Positive 5m/15m momentum and +0.425% over 4h support UP, but RSI 78.8 and 47.1% historical continuation temper confidence.
Oct 7, 10:45 PM	Platinum	▲ UP	94%	LOST	Model UP 98.9%; price is 0.403% above target versus a 0.179% expected move. The 5m gain of 0.104% supports the cushion, despite negative 4h momentum and mixed recent blocks.
Oct 7, 10:30 PM	Silver	▲ UP	95%	LOST	Model gives 99.7% up; the 0.453% cushion is nearly three times the 0.153% expected move. Hourly +0.2% and both averages support up despite 5m -0.116% and a weak historical up share.
Oct 7, 10:30 PM	Solana	▼ DOWN	63%	LOST	Model favors DOWN 64.7%; price is 0.08% below target and below both averages. The hour fell 0.414%, and only 46.2% of blocks rose after two up blocks; one prior loss warrants caution.
Oct 7, 10:30 PM	Ethereum	▼ DOWN	78%	LOST	Model favors down 80%; five of eight blocks fell, with 5m -0.083% and RSI 36.9. Below both averages with negative MACD, although historical reversals and 4h gains temper confidence.
Oct 7, 10:30 PM	NEAR	▼ DOWN	66%	LOST	Model favors down 69%; hourly change is -1.447%, five of eight blocks fell, and price is below both averages. NO depth is 37% larger, but positive MACD and 0.846% expected movement add risk.
Oct 7, 10:30 PM	Palladium	▼ DOWN	74%	LOST	Model favors down 76%; price is 0.165% below target versus a 0.11% expected move. Five of eight blocks fell and MACD is negative, though flat recent quotes and higher 4h volatility add uncertainty.
Oct 7, 10:30 PM	Zcash	▼ DOWN	64%	LOST	Model favors down 66%; six of eight blocks fell, 5m is -0.217%, and price is below both averages. Positive MACD and a small 0.082% deficit versus 0.391% expected movement limit confidence.
Oct 7, 10:30 PM	Gold	▲ UP	95%	LOST	Price is 0.684% above target, over nine times the 0.073% expected move; model is near 100% up. Five of eight blocks rose, with positive MACD and price above both averages.
Oct 7, 10:15 PM	BNB	▲ UP	83%	WON	Model UP 87%; +0.077% cushion versus 0.094% expected move, 5m +0.108% and above both SMAs support UP. Historical continuation is only 48.6%, limiting confidence.
Oct 7, 10:15 PM	Dogecoin	▲ UP	72%	WON	Model gives 81% UP, supported by a 0.238% 15m rebound. The 0.087% cushion is below the 0.207% expected move; only six upticks and 54.7% historical reversals weaken conviction.
Oct 7, 10:15 PM	Ethereum	▲ UP	70%	WON	Model gives 75.2% UP with a 0.065% cushion versus a 0.094% expected move; 15m and 4h gains support UP. Historical reversals of 54.8% and weak Bitcoin temper confidence.
Oct 7, 10:15 PM	XRP	▲ UP	75%	WON	Model gives 83.1% UP; the 0.113% cushion and 0.34% 5m rise support UP. Historical reversals of 53.8%, negative MACD and a 0.387% hourly decline limit confidence.
Oct 7, 10:15 PM	WTI Oil	▲ UP	76%	WON	Model gives 81.1% UP; the 0.271% cushion exceeds the 0.178% expected move, while 5m gained 0.045%. Two falling blocks, RSI 41 and higher 4h volatility temper confidence.
Oct 7, 10:15 PM	Zcash	▲ UP	78%	WON	Model gives 89.2% UP; a 0.267% cushion and 11 upticks support the 0.68% rebound. RSI 76.2, 52.8% historical reversals and two recent failed UP calls warrant lower confidence.
Oct 7, 10:15 PM	NEAR	▲ UP	78%	WON	Model gives 88.2% UP; ten upticks and gains of 1.181% over 15m and 3.089% over 4h support recovery. The 0.426% cushion is below the 0.772% expected move, and RSI 70.2 adds reversal risk.
Oct 7, 10:15 PM	Hyperliquid	▲ UP	78%	WON	Model UP 82.1%; +0.157% cushion and 5m +0.172% support the rebound, with 9/15 upticks. Negative MACD, 60m -0.5% and neutral historical continuation (49.3%) temper confidence.